BC Racebook Newsletter - March 26, 2025
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Fraser Downs Harness Racing - Expert Picks
Picks are pre weather and scratches.
MARCH 28, 2025
Race 1 : 4-1-3
Race 2 : 1-3-4
Race 3 : 4-5-3
Race 4 : 1-2-4
Race 5 : 5-3-2
Race 6 : 3-4-7
Race 7 : 6-4-2
Race 8 : 3-1-2
MARCH 27, 2025
Race 1 : 1-4-7
Race 2 : 3-4-2
Race 3 : 8-3-1
Race 4 : 1-2-4
Race 5 : 2-1-6
Race 6 : 2-1-3
Race 7 : 1-3-2
Race 8 : 4-8-3
Speed Figures and Young Horses
by Dawn Lupul
Love them or hate them, there is no argument that speed figures can be extremely valuable for finding an edge when playing Thoroughbreds. But with young horses, it often pays to look beyond a quick figure. Taking a contrarian view and playing against the top fig horses is a potential money-making angle to consider.
When evaluating young horses, I like to consider a debut race as a rudimentary indication of talent. Lots can happen to a horse making its first start, and often the improvement from the debut to the second race is massive. It is also difficult to quantify.
In a field of maidens, any horse who had a first start with a respectable speed figure can often be counted on to win sooner rather than later. Betting action can signal whether the connections feel a youngster has talent, but don’t rush to bet along with the crowd. The value is often found by taking a stance against the overbet horses.
A dismal speed figure in the first start, coupled with no betting action that supported the runner, are signs that improvement is probably a long way off or may never come. But be careful not to dismiss a horse who shows a slow figure but who did get some wagering interest. If there are no obvious signs of trouble either in the comments or upon watching the replay, a player can cautiously take the debut at face value but be ready to be wrong a lot. And a horse who outran expectations can show up at sometimes generous odds to win next time out.
The thing about betting is there are no rules that apply in every situation. That’s why the endeavour continues to fascinate us and makes betting a fun and challenging pursuit. Using speed figures is just one piece of the puzzle, but they are an important part of putting potential plays together.
