Paladin Powers Up as 2026 Kentucky Derby Picture Takes Shape

by Dawn Lupul

As the buzz starts building for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, the prep races are finally giving us a clearer picture of who’s legit. One name getting a lot of attention right now is Paladin. He just pulled off a gutsy win that has his team dreaming big about Churchill Downs.

Paladin really stamped himself as a serious contender with his win in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, where he battled past Chip Honcho. It wasn’t a perfect trip, but he stayed locked in and got the job done — exactly the kind of grit you need in the chaos of the Derby. His 93 Beyer Speed Figure shows he’s improving, and staying undefeated for trainer Chad Brown doesn’t hurt.

Then there’s Nearly, who just keeps showing up and doing his thing. His 5¾-length romp in the Holy Bull Stakes turned heads, and his 98 Beyer has him near the top of the class. With Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher calling the shots, Nearly looks like a colt who can handle the distance and the pressure. He’s going to be tough.

Renegade, also from the Pletcher barn, is coming along at the right time too. He broke his maiden in style with a 3¾-length win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and earned a career-best 92 Beyer. He’s still developing, but he’s got momentum — and don’t forget, he ran second to Paladin in the Remsen Stakes, so the stamina is there.

Betting Thoughts

When it comes to betting the Kentucky Derby, it’s smart to stay disciplined. With a huge field and plenty of traffic trouble potential, there’s no magic formula. Look at speed figures, recent form, and pedigree — especially for that mile-and-a-quarter distance.

Pay attention to pace, too. If there’s a ton of early speed, closers might get the perfect setup. If things look slower up front, it could favour horses near the lead.

Exotic bets like exactas, trifectas, and superfectas can pay big, but they’re easy to overdo. A better move is to key your strongest contender on top and use a few value horses underneath, instead of boxing half the field and hoping for the best.

As Derby day gets closer, keep an eye on track conditions and post positions — they matter more than people think. And don’t get locked into one storyline. Scratches happen. Weather changes. Things shift fast.

Do your homework, manage your bankroll, and most importantly, enjoy it. The Derby’s one of the best betting days of the year — and with the right approach, it can be a profitable one too.