BC Racebook April Newsletter
Racing Tips for The 152nd Kentucky Oaks (May1) &
The 152nd Kentucky Derby (May 2) - Churchill Downs
photo kentuckyderby.com
by Dawn Lupul
The 2026 Kentucky Derby is right around the corner, with the 152nd running set for May 2, and there’s some clarity as to who is leading the charge among this year’s three-year-olds.
A few names have really started to stand apart, but it’s too early to pick a winner without seeing who is entered at the post position draw on April 25.
Into Mischief is the sire of the top two contenders, including Renegade, who turned heads in a big way with his win in the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on March 28. He didn’t just win—he dominated, pulling away by four lengths and finishing with a sharp final quarter. He put it all together in that race, displaying speed, strength, and the kind of stamina you want to see heading into Churchill Downs.
Then there’s Commandment, who showed plenty of grit edging out The Puma by a nose in the Florida Derby on March 31. It wasn’t flashy, but it was efficient—exactly the kind of effort that often translates well on Derby Day. Both Renegade and Commandment have shown they can handle pressure and run fast when it counts.
Further Ado, a son of Gun Runner, was just as eye-catching in the $1.25 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. He cruised to an 11-length win and earned a 106 Beyer, one of the best posted by any three-year-old so far this season. On top of that, he’s already proven himself over the Churchill Downs surface, which is another positive.
Just behind them, there are a few others who could make things interesting.
Emerging Market made a big impression winning the Louisiana Derby by a head in just his second career start—a bit light in experience for a Derby contender, but clearly there is plenty of talent there. Incredibolt bounced back nicely from a rough effort in the Holy Bull with a convincing four-length win in the Virginia Derby. Silent Tactic, despite finishing second in back-to-back stakes, continues to show a powerful late kick that could put him in a striking position down the stretch.
So Happy also deserves a mention after posting a solid 100 Beyer in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing up with a decent final quarter. He may not be grabbing headlines, but he’s consistent and capable of stepping forward at the right time. The Puma is a horse with a strong late run, and the distance may work well to his strength.
The field will take shape over the next week as we get close to the big day at Churchill Downs. The stage is set—it’s just a matter of who delivers when it matters most.
Enjoy the Kentucky Derby at The Derby Bar and Grill!
