Will the Derby Be Dazzling? - Hong Kong Derby (March 22)

by Dick Powell

The BMW Hong Kong Derby will be run this Sunday, March 22 at Sha Tin Racecourse for the 149th time. It is the final leg of the Hong Kong Four-Year-Old Classic Series and will be contested at the demanding distance of 2000 meters (about 1 ¼ miles). Worth approximately US$ 3.12 million, it is open to the 14 highest-rated four-year-olds in Hong Kong and will be run around two turns. For many of the Sha Tin-based runners, it will be there first time when they will be asked turn right twice in a race.

It is an overused cliché that every starter has a chance to win but in the case of this year’s Derby, it is definitely true. I can make a case for each horse without stretching the truth past the breaking point. Post positions will be drawn on Thursday and they should help narrow the field down some.

As evenly matched as this year’s Derby field appears, it is still possible that Little Paradise is the best four-year-old in Hong Kong and will assert himself on Sunday. He flew home to win the Hong Kong Classic Mile with a final quarter mile in 22.51 seconds and never hesitated to go between horses and surge through traffic.

Unfortunately, Little Paradise broke dreadfully in the Hong Kong Classic Cup and trailed the field. He will need to behave better at the start of the Derby but he showed in the Classic Mile that he can pass horses willingly.

Stormy Grove upset the Classic Cup at 22 to 1 odds when he stormed home to win by a widening length. His final time of 1:46.62 seconds for the 1800 meters (about 1 ⅛ miles) was solid and the gelded son of Toronado looks like another 200 meters will not be a problem.

Last season, I previewed two young runners that might develop into major contenders – Top Dragon and Dazzling Fit – both making it to the Derby. Top Dragon was fifth in the Classic Mile after being interfered with in the deep stretch. Chris So decided to skip the Classic Cup and kept his form with a close second in a Class Two going a mile in very fast time.

Dazzling Fit has been disappointing in the sense that more was expected out of him but slowly, but surely, he looks ready to go the distance of the Derby. He worries me that he might just be too one-paced to win a major race but as long as he doesn’t draw way outside, I think he’s a major contender at a big price.

In the Classic Cup, Dazzling Fit broke well but still wound up racing wide without cover for the entire race. He finished fifth, beaten three lengths, and if you view it as a prep race, it achieved everything David Eustace could want from it. His long and efficient stride gives Luke Ferraris the confidence that he has a horse that can get the Derby distance.

I think that Little Paradise is the horse to beat and the horse with the most pari-mutuel value is Dazzling Fit. I will bet Dazzling Fit to win/place and then play him underneath the entire field in exactas. If you like to bet Trifectas, I would go Little Paradise with Dazzling Fit with All and Dazzling Fit with Little Paradise with All.